6 Takeaways from Ian Stewart's Final Deloitte Briefing

After 18 years, Ian Stewart is stepping down as Deloitte's UK Chief Economist. His final Monday Briefing is a sharp diagnosis of where the global economy stands and where it's heading.

Here are the six themes that he discusses:

1. Low growth explains everything

Most Western economies are growing far slower than 20 years ago. This sluggishness fuels political polarisation, struggling public services, and soaring debt.

2. GDP isn't the only number that matters

Immigration boosts headline GDP, but often does little for GDP per capita, the true measure of living standards. Canada grew fast but spread that growth across a booming population. Japan grew slowly but maintained decent per-capita gains. You should not confuse activity with prosperity

3. Risk has shifted from banks to governments

Since 2008, banks have been forced to build capital buffers. Governments, however, have loaded up on debt. With interest rates back to normal levels, sovereign debt is now a genuine vulnerability and bond market tantrums, such as the UK's 2022 crisis, are a growing risk.

4. Globalisation is being rewired

Trade is fracturing along geopolitical lines. Supply chains are lengthening, and strategic sectors from semiconductors to rare earths are now contested. The old open global order is giving way to a more contested, bloc-based system.

5. Three industrial upheavals are happening at once

AI, energy transition, and defence are all attracting massive investment simultaneously. AI alone has driven more than half of US growth recently. This confluence of spending will reshape economies for decades.

6. Low growth isn't permanent

History shows that low-growth periods are often followed by technological breakthroughs. The 1930s pessimism preceded decades of innovation. Stewart believes AI could be the next general-purpose technology that lifts productivity across the board.